CHAPTER-III

RISK ASSESSMENT AND VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

3.1 Disaster Specific proneness to Various Types of Disasters

Type of Hazards	Time of occurrence	Potential Impact	Vulnerable areas
Flood	June -September	Loss of life, livestock, crop and infrastructure	Entire district
Epidemics	Anytime	Loss to human life	-do-
Fire Accidents	March-May	Human Loss and house damage	-do-
Earth Quake	Anytime	Loss of Life, Livestock and Infrastructure	-do-
Cyclone	May- June	Damage to houses, injuries etc	Paglam circle
Drought	July-October	Damaged to crops	Entire district
Landslides	June -October	Loss of human lives, livestock, paddy, infrastructures, houses	Entire district

3.2 Disaster Probability

Flood:

During rainy seasons, all the major rivers in the district carry gallons of water pose potential threat of flood. Things get worse as the flood devastates the crops in the affected area and is also a source of epidemics. The list of flood prone areas have been given in ANNEXURE-IV

Fire Accidents:

Fire accidents present a serious problem to the houses in Lower Dibang Valley district. This is mostly due to the peculiar housing pattern and careless ness, circuits etc in the villages. These houses have generally bamboo thatched walls with thatched roofs made out of timber, bamboo, leafs and straw. They spring up in clusters. Any occurrence of fire destroys houses and properties thereby causing serious damage to the affected people.

Drought:

Sometimes want of rain at the proper time either defers commencement of agricultural operations or affects growth of crops. Occurrence of drought is not so frequent in Lower Dibang valley district; however such case was once reported from the Paglam-Dambuk Block in the year 2005. Past occurrences show that the entire district is likely to be prone to drought.

Earth Quake:

The Lower Dibang Valley district has been experiencing mild tremor of earthquakes since 1950, in which a major earthquake stroke the entire North East Region causing damages to lives and infrastructures. The possibility can never be ruled out as it can happen any time.

Landslides:

The entire district of Lower Dibang Valley is prone to landslides due to heavy downpour every year causing wide spread damages to infrastructures and snapping road communications from outside world. With onset of monsoon season from June, the district administration finds a field day works to ensure smooth flow of essential commodities including POL items etc.

PROBABILITY PERIOD / SEASONALITY OF DISASTERS

Name of Disaster

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Flood

Landslides

Drought

Fire Accident

Earthquake

3.3 Ranking and Probability of Disaster Episodes in the District

Based on the previous disasters experienced by the district in the past, probability of flood ranks first. Accordingly the occurrence of other disasters such as landslides, fire accident, drought, epidemic and earthquake rank as orderly mentioned.

Disastrous Event	Year of Occurrences
Flood	1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007
Landslides	1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 20007
Drought	2005
Fire Accidents	2005, 2007
Earthquake	None so far
Cyclone	2005